It’s hard not to be downhearted at the moment, the Jets are in a bad spot and to many it seems unsurmountable. A season that started with Championship aspirations has quickly turned into a house of horrors. But it’s important to remember that the Jets have yet to be eliminated from postseason contention, and while it feels impossible… it is mathematically in play. Hope. 

If we’re being realistic, the Jets will need to reel off 7 straight wins. The Jets have only ever won 7 or more regular season games in a row once in their history, in 1986. 

Aaron Rodgers is no stranger to having to run the table. After starting with a 4-6 record with Green Bay in 2016, the Packers proceeded to win their remaining 6 games to squeeze into the playoffs. They then used that momentum to go to the NFC Championship game, before falling to the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome. 

Is it likely that the Jets will go on a Packers-like run? Based on what we’ve seen so far it’s hard to envision, but the NFL is predictable in its unpredictability. 

As players, you can’t focus on the mountain top, you need to focus on taking that first step. That first step will come this weekend as the Jets face off against the Indianapolis Colts, led by returning second-year QB Anthony Richardson. 

The Colts have now lost 3 games in a row to fall to 4-6 and with the AFC picking up steam, this is a game the Colts have to win to stay in touch with the 6-4 Houston Texans, who currently lead the AFC South. 

For the Jets, this really is a case of last-chance saloon. So how can they beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday and regain some of the momentum that was lost in Arizona?

This weekend, the Jets will face a defense who are in the bottom half of the league, allowing 22.3 points per game. More tellingly, the Colts have one of the leakiest run defenses in football through the first 10 weeks of the season. 

Indianapolis has allowed an average of 148.3 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs; only the Panthers and the Cowboys allow more. That number jumps up to 152.4 yards per game when you look at just their performance on the road. 

The Colts have been renowned as one of the best run defenses in football over the last two years, ranking 5th and 10th in 2022 and 2023 respectively having allowed 4.1 yards per carry. They still have Grover Stewart who is one of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in football. Stewart ranks 5th in ESPN’s run-stop metrics and PFF have him completing 22 tackles that constitute a defensive failure for the offense, 4th most in football. 

But the Colts have been missing a key component of their run defense all season, with Samson Ebukam going down with a torn Achilles in July. Without Ebukam setting the edge, teams have bounced more runs outside, avoiding Grover Stewart as much as possible. 

As the Colts have gotten healthier, their run defense has shown signs of improvement. They have tackled better, they’ve been more disciplined in their gap assignments and the defensive line is getting a better push. But it’s still an area the Jets need to test on Sunday. 

Entering week 11 the Jets have one of the highest pass play percentages in the league at 63.99% (4th highest). Part of that is a consequence of playing from behind, but part of that is by design. It’s the reason you get Aaron Rodgers in the building. 

But to pass the ball effectively, you have to be able to run it. The Jets have one of the best running backs in football in Breece Hall, who ranks just 15th in the NFL in terms of rushing attempts this season. 

Breece was running at 5.2 yards a clip on Sunday but due to the game situation he garnered just 10 rushing attempts. At no point this season has Breece received 20 carries in a game. Most tier one runners in the NFL have at least one 20+ rush attempt game, and most have multiple. 

If the Jets want to try to exploit the Colts run defense, they need to commit to the run and stick with it, which includes the need to mix-up their red-zone looks to involve the running game. There’s no easier offense to defend than a predictable one.